Ingrid van de Leemput, Egbert van Nes
Modelling complex systems such as the spread of vector borne diseases can help us understand the underlying mechanisms of transmission. The system can be analyzed and we can study its equilibria and the potential changes in the stability that occurs as a result of a perturbation close to a critical point. When a system approaches such a point it displays a critical slowing down resulting in an increase of variance or autocorrelation, which can be used to anticipate a shift in the system.
We will apply this theory to the dynamics of vector borne diseases. Detecting these indicators in real time can allow to anticipate outbreaks in advance and build a suitable response.
We will study various models and try to implement new ones, considering several aspects of the dynamics such as the space disparity, control mechanisms and variety of vectors. We will explore simulated data but also data from various sources such as social media data or google search behavior.
Research questions / objectives
The following objectives are preliminary and will be updated in the proposal.