prof. dr. Eric van Gorp, prof. dr. Frederique Bartumeus
Maarten Schrama, Eline Boelee
Deltares, CML Leiden
I am mainly focused on constructing future change scenarios for the Netherlands (possibly extending these to the whole of Europe). These will include climate, land-use, agricultural practices and livestock numbers, distribution of water and the presence of water bodies, human demographics and the transport of vectors and hosts both into and within the Netherlands. These scenarios will account for a range of possible changes based on a variety of factors, such as social and economic growth, governmental focus on sustainability, and the level of international cooperation. All these different aspects of the future scenarios will affect the risk of vector-borne virus outbreaks in some way. For example through changing mosquito populations, the chance of virus introduction and the speed at which a virus could spread once it’s introduced. Several of the PhD projects will use these scenarios to assess the risk of future viral outbreaks and to investigate the best ways to combat such events.
The other part of my work relates to modelling. I am involved in constructing a dynamic mosquito population model which can be applied on a national scale. I am also involved in seeing how all the different models being developed in this project can be combined to gain a holistic picture of the risk of future vector-borne viral outbreaks in the Netherlands.